Using bond yields to predict where the market is going next

The Globe & Mail – In economic forecasting, it’s hard to beat the yield curve

Since 1970, every time short rates have been higher than long rates – a condition called an inversion – the Standard & Poor’s 500 composite and the S&P/TSX composite index (formerly the TSE 300) have had negative or flat earnings growth. The curve showed relatively high short rates before the dot-com bust in 2000. Investors who heeded these warnings could have sold off their stocks ahead of the collapse.

The yield curve predicted the present economic malaise. In the 15 months leading up to the subprime housing that began last August, the U.S. Treasury curve was showing relatively high short-term rates. Says Anthony Crecenzi, author of the 2002 bestseller (in fixed income analysis circles, that is), The Strategic Bond Investor, “few indicators with such a stellar forecasting record have the yield curve’s simplicity.”

Its ability to predict economic growth or contraction 12 to 18 months ahead far exceeds the power of other analytical tools, including the analysis of far more esoteric macroeconomic indicators that track things like orders for tools that make other tools. As well, the yield curve beats folk tales about hemlines and Super Bowl winners.

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Fanta, the Nazi’s equivalent to Coca-Cola

The original Fanta was a Nazi product. When Pearl Harbor ended the flow of Coca-Cola syrup to German bottlers, German Coca-Cola chief Max Keith – who sported a tiny Hitler-style mustache and celebrated the Führer’s 50th birthday at company conventions – formulated an alternative.

Slate.com, August 5, 2010

The unintentional comedic genius that is Craigslist

I buy and sell a good chunk of the gadgets that accumulate in my tiny condo’s closet on Toronto’s Craigslist page, which opens me up to receiving a lot of pretty strange e-mail. Most recently I sold two HP 1030CA netbooks for $200 each. I also threw in about $50 worth of additional accessories and advertised it as something along the lines of “an extra $50 of stuff for free”.

This e-mail makes me laugh every time I read it. I hear it in my head as the whining, sing-song voice of somebody jonesing for a hit of… hell, I don’t know. Something. I do admire his belief that appealing to my humanity will work in making me drop the price (and keep a bunch of accessories for something I no longer own) just for him.

Metric @ Union Station

Yesterday Samsung’s mobile phone division sponsored a short but sweet outdoor concert starring the very excellent Metric.

The band hit the stage at 7:15 PM and played a tight fifty minute set before taking their final bows and disappearing. Front St. was closed in both directions in front of Union Station where they performed; most of these photos are taken while standing on the concrete median in between the two directions for traffic. Before and during the show, Samsung representatives circulated through the crowd to demonstrate the Samsung iPhone Galaxy S, which looks like a pretty decent Android OS phone. I hope Samsung’s marketing department decides this was a good way to promote their products, companies should be encouraged to put on more free summertime concerts.

In China’s factories, pay and protest are on the rise

The Economist – The rising power of the Chinese worker

Cheap labour has built China’s economic miracle. Its manufacturing workers toil for a small fraction of the cost of their American or German competitors. At the bottom of the heap, a “floating population” of about 130m migrants work in China’s boomtowns, taking home 1,348 yuan a month on average last year.

That is a mere $197, little more than one-twentieth of the average monthly wage in America. But it is 17% more than the year before. As China’s economy has bounced back, wages have followed suit. On the coasts, where its exporting factories are clustered, bosses are short of workers, and workers short of patience. A spate of strikes has thrown a spanner into the workshop of the world.

The hands of China’s workers have been strengthened by a new labour law, introduced in 2008, and by the more fundamental laws of demand and supply (see article). Workers are becoming harder to find and to keep. The country’s villages still contain perhaps 70m potential migrants. Other rural folk might be willing to work closer to home in the growing number of factories moving inland.

But the supply of strong backs and nimble fingers is not infinite, even in China. The number of 15- to 29-year-olds will fall sharply from next year. And although their wages are increasing, their aspirations are rising even faster. They seem less willing to “eat bitterness”, as the Chinese put it, without complaint.

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Braithwaite wallets: The best in men’s wallets

I forget where I came across Braithwaite Wallets originally, but ever since browsing their website I’ve had my eye on their “Cypress” model. Lately, however, I think I’m more of an “Orpheus” man:

Stig says…

Top Gear Birthday Cards is a great little website I’ll have to remember to revisit when some birthdays roll around.

DC Universe Online: Who Do You Trust? trailer

Embedded above is the trailer for the new Sony MMORPG DC Universe Online, available soon for the PlayStation 3 and PC. It’s supposed to have an all-new combat system the likes of we’ve never seen before (in a MMORPG). Interesting stuff, if not just for the 5-minute short movie that is the trailer.

77 questions every business plan should answer

Today’s Globe & Mail has an article by Doug Steiner about the questions a small business owner seeking investment capital should be ready to answer. He cites an old photocopy of a handout entitled “77 Questions Every Business Plan Should Answer,” but unfortunately only lists six of them. (In the comments, I inquire after the rest.) Here’s what he shared:

Your business wants my money? Good luck

Question 1 is meant to be a quick killer: “Why will this business succeed?”

If you can’t answer that, then your hope of getting anyone other than mom and pop to throw you a financial bone is pretty slim. You say you have a unique idea? I doubt it. The only unique ideas I’ve heard pitched were complete eye-rollers — as in, “You have to be kidding.” One guy who came to see me during the Internet boom wanted to start a website that would help tenants trade their way out of building leases online. Could he have found anything more likely to fail?

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Tutorial: Adding products and categories to your new Magento website

When friends and family come to me for advice on starting up an e-commerce website of their own, I typically refer them to Magento, which is to date the most polished and full featured e-commerce platform I’ve ever seen. Even better, Magento Community Edition is available to download for free, and professionally designed templates are widely available.

There is, however, one rather sizable snag. While the technical installation of Magento is both easy to follow and well-documented, the basic install then leaves you with a blank home page and no real instructions on where to go next.

That’s what this tutorial is here to help with. By the end of this guide, you’ll have logged in as the administrator of your new Magento website, you’ll have become familiar with Magento’s category system, you’ll have created your first product for display and sale on the site, and you’ll have created a simple product listing layout to allow your customers to peruse what you have for sale.

Ready? Let’s go!

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